Looking at the smoothed long-term trend in October 2022, the Leading Index (LI) started trending below the 100 point mark, the department said in a statement today.
Chief statistician, Datuk Seri Mohd Uzir Mahidin, said that Malaysia’s LI rose 0.4 per cent to 109.6 points in October 2022 versus 109.2 points in the same month last year, a rise of 0.4 index points.
“This increase was supported by the number of housing units approved and real imports of other basic precious and other non-ferrous metals,” the statement said.
However, on a monthly basis, the LI recorded a negative 0.3 per cent in October 2022 against a negative 1.3 per cent in September 2022, the statement said.
This trend was driven by the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index (0.6 per cent), real imports of semiconductors (0.3 per cent), real money supply M1 (0.1 per cent) and expected sales value for manufacturing (0.1 per cent).
LI is a predictive tool to anticipate economic upturns and downturns in an average of four to six months ahead.
“As for the current economic position, the Coincident Index (CI) recorded an increase of 6.5 per cent year-on-year to 120.5 points in October 2022 (October 2021: 113.1 points).
“On the other hand, the monthly change in CI recorded a decrease of 0.6 caused by the decrease in the Industrial Production Index (-0.4 per cent), capacity utilisation for manufacturing (-0.3 per cent) and real contributions of the Employees Provident Fund (-0.1 per cent),” the statement said.
The CI measures current economic activities and is often analysed with leading and lagging indexes. – TVS
